Step 1: supply density, 30 seconds
Run one specific long-tail keyword and look at two things: result count and how recently listings were touched. A very high count with high-review incumbents on page one means the category is consolidated and expensive to enter.
The opposite also fails: few results, none of them moving, usually means demand is weak. Neither case suits a new store.
- One specific long-tail keyword
- Check result count and review scale
- All high-review incumbents: defer
Step 2: price spread, 2 minutes
Sort the comparable prices and compute 75th percentile divided by 25th percentile. That ratio is the room you have to move inside the category.
A ratio near 1 means the category is commoditised and you can only compete on cost. Above 2 usually means real differences in pack, bundle or positioning, which is where a new entrant can stand.
A wide spread can also mean chaos: counterfeits, pricing errors, mixed pack sizes. Check a few titles to confirm the sizes actually match.
- Take the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile
- Divide 75th by 25th
- Below 1.3 is crowded, above 2 has room
- Wide spread: verify pack sizes
Step 3: is demand stable, 3 minutes
Check whether the same item is on sale across several marketplaces. A single-marketplace item is often regional demand or a short-lived spike.
Then look at review growth. If front-page listings have not gained reviews in months, the product has peaked. If newly listed items still accumulate reviews, demand is still live.
- Confirm two or three marketplaces carry it
- Check whether reviews are still growing
- Single marketplace only: treat demand as unproven
Step 4: one line of differentiation, 1 minute
Answer in one sentence: why would a buyer pick yours. The sentence must be verifiable. Better does not count. Two spare tips in the box and dispatch within 24 hours does.
If you cannot write the sentence, you can only compete on price. That is a valid strategy only if your cost is genuinely lower.
- Write one sentence
- It must be verifiable: number, timing, bundle
- No sentence: you are competing on price
A five-column sheet you can fill in five minutes
Five columns: category, result count, price spread ratio, sold on multiple marketplaces, one-line differentiator. Read the last two columns. Blank cells mean drop it.
Screening ten categories in ten minutes typically leaves two or three worth deeper work. That is the point: move time from finding to validating.
- Build the five-column sheet
- One row per category, no long sentences
- Only go deeper when the last two columns are filled
When to drop it immediately
Cost floor above the median, no differentiator, single-marketplace only, or a page one full of high-review incumbents still cutting price. Two of those four and you drop it.
Dropping fast is not carelessness. It keeps your trial budget for products that deserve it.
- Two of four signals: drop
- Log the reason so you do not re-check next month
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